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01/27/2012 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - It has been a season of frustration for Bucks center Andrew Bogut and his latest setback will keep him out of action indefinitely. That leaves Milwaukee a big hole in the middle this evening as it visits a Chicago Bulls club looking to rebound from its first home loss of the season.
Bogut, Milwaukee's leading rebounder with 8.3 per game to go along with 11.3 points and 2.0 blocks a night, sat out four straight games due to personal reasons from Jan. 3-8 and also missed a game on Jan. 13 due to concussion-like symptoms. He returned to action three nights later and played in six straight contests including Wednesday's 105-99 victory over Houston.
The seven-footer played just nine minutes and 29 seconds though before suffering a left ankle injury that was revealed by an MRI yesterday to be a fracture. That will put the top pick of the 2005 draft out of action for the foreseeable future.
It's just the latest setback for Bogut, who has also battled right elbow, wrist and hand injuries as well as a lower back issue in his career.
"I just can't seem to catch a break," said Bogut on Wednesday in what was his 400th career game. "Coming back from injuries is tough. It's unlucky and frustrating. Someone has a voodoo doll and is putting pins in me."
Milwaukee was able to survive without its big man, getting 20 points each from Brandon Jennings and Stephen Jackson for the club's first win in Houston since Nov. 2, 1999. It was the Bucks' third win in four games overall and third straight on the road after starting the season 0-8 as the guest.
Jennings, who is averaging 26.0 points per game over his last five contests, added six assists and Mike Dunleavy Jr. deposited a season-high 18 points as Milwaukee won for the first time this year when trailing at the half. It has its bench to thank after the unit outscored Houston's reserves by 51 points. Ersan Ilyasova stepped in for Bogut and grabbed a career-high 19 rebounds.
"It was a good win," said Dunleavy. "We're starting to play well on the road. We got a cushion in the fourth quarter and held on to win."
The Bucks recent success on the road figures to be challenged tonight by the Bulls, who captured their first eight in Chicago prior to Wednesday's 95-90 setback to the visiting Pacers. The loss snapped the Bulls' four-game overall win streak and was only their second in their past 11 overall.
Though Derrick Rose played in his second game since missing the previous five due to a left toe sprain, the guard netted just two of his 24 points in the fourth quarter. Ronnie Brewer added 20 points and 10 rebounds for a Chicago club that remains without Luol Deng and Taj Gibson. Deng has missed the past two with a left wrist ailment, while Gibson is battling a left ankle sprain.
Chicago coach Tom Thibodeau didn't think his team was ready to play, and Rose respected that position.
"As a player, I didn't see it. But as a coach, he sees everything," said Rose. "So the only thing we can do is come here (next time) and go through the shootaround and the walk-though and be professional."
Chicago wraps a four-game homestand looking to avoid consecutive losses for the first time this season. The club hasn't lost two straight in nearly a year, since Feb. 5-7, and has still won 44 of its past 50 at home dating back to last season.
The Bulls swept the Bucks in four games a season ago for the first time since the 2006-07 season and have won seven of the past 10 encounters overall. Milwaukee has lost two straight, 10 of 11 and 17 of its last 20 in Chicago.
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Inter aims to bounce back against Lecce >>
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Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.
“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.
“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).
Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.
Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.
The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.
Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game
Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.
Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.
Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”
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