05/10/2008 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Right-hander Ryan Dempster will try to rebound from his first loss of 2008 today, when the Chicago Cubs entertain the Arizona Diamondbacks again in the middle contest of a three-game weekend series at Wrigley Field.
Dempster had been 4-0 with two no-decisions heading into a May 5 start at Cincinnati, but he allowed four hits and five runs -- all unearned -- in a 5-3 loss to the Reds. He struck out seven batters and walked one, while watching his earned run average drop from 3.16 to 2.72 in spite of the result.
The righty, who is 4-0 with a 4.30 ERA in four home starts in 2008, owns a 1-4 record with a 6.04 earned run average through 13 career games (nine starts) against the Diamondbacks.
Diamondbacks rookie pitcher Max Scherzer gets another crack at the mound this afternoon, when he takes on the Cubs at Wrigley Field.
Scherzer is 0-1 with a 5.40 earned run average in two games (one start) this season. He made his major league debut on April 29 versus Houston, hurling 4 1/3 perfect innings of relief with seven strikeouts in a 6-4 loss. He made his first-career start against Philadelphia on Monday, but was roughed up for five runs and eight hits in four innings of an 11-4 setback.
The right-handed Missouri product will face Chicago for the first time.
On Friday, Ted Lilly tossed seven brilliant innings, and Derrek Lee homered as Chicago downed Arizona, 3-1.
Lilly (3-4) allowed just one run on three hits, while walking two and fanning 10 for the Cubs, who have won two of their past three games. Carlos Marmol threw a scoreless eighth and Kerry Wood earned his sixth save of the year by hurling a perfect ninth to finish the game.
Lilly and Alfonso Soriano drove in a run apiece for Chicago.
Chris Young homered to account for the lone Diamondbacks run. Stephen Drew, Chris Snyder and Augie Ojeda each recorded a hit for Arizona, which has lost two of three but still sports the best record in the big leagues at 23-13.
Dan Haren (4-2) was the hard-luck loser for the D'Backs, surrendering just two runs on five hits in seven innings.
<< Braves resume series with Bucos at PNC Park
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Atlanta lefty Chuck James looks for a third straight
victory tonight, when the Braves enter PNC Park for the second installment of
a four-game series with the Pittsburgh Pirates.
James opened his 2008 season wit
<< Mets, Reds to play two at Shea
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Johan Santana gets the nod for the New York Mets tonight,
when he takes on the Cincinnati Reds in the first game of a doubleheader at
Shea Stadium.
Friday's opener of a three-game series between the Reds and Mets was
<< Carlisle gets four-year deal to coach Mavs
Dallas, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Rick Carlisle has come to terms on a four-year
contract to become head coach of the Dallas Mavericks.
The Mavericks website posted a story late Friday night that confirmed the
signing, which is expected
<< Roddick, Stepanek retire, sending Djokovic, Wawrinka to Rome final
Rome, Italy (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Third-seeded Serbian Novak Djokovic and Swiss
Stanislas Wawrinka advanced to the final of the $3.5 million Italian Masters
Saturday after both their semifinal opponents retired.
Sixth-seeded American Andy
Phillies take on slumping Giants again >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Jimmy Rollins' return to the Philadelphia lineup sparked
his team to victory. Today, Rollins and the Phillies will resume their road
trip out west with the second installment of a three-game series against the
San Fra
Padres' Maddux goes for win No. 350 vs. Rockies >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Greg Maddux will try again for career win No. 350 when he
leads the San Diego Padres tonight in the second test of a three-game series
versus the Colorado Rockies at Petco Park.
Maddux has lost two straight starts and
Sheets, Brewers square off with Cards >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Ben Sheets will try to keep his perfect record intact this
evening, when he leads the Milwaukee Brewers in the second installment of a
four-game series versus the St. Louis Cardinals at Miller Park.
Sheets is 4-0 wit
Red-hot Marlins fish for another win at Washington >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The NL East-leading Florida Marlins will try to extend
their season-high winning streak to six games tonight, when they resume a
seven-game road trip with the second of three straight meetings with
Washing
Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.
He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.
"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.
He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.
Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.
Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.
Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.
Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.
With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.
Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).
And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)
The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.
While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.
Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.
One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.
Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.
What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.
That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.
MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.
"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.
"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."
So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.
In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.
MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.
The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.
Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.
MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.
To visit this online sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting odds needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.
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